- Buy T Bills or Treasury Notes from a discount
broker.
- Put your money in high yield Money Market (e.g.
Chrales Schwab, no load mutual funds like Scudder or Strong)
- Buy high yield saving bonds like I-bonds. These
are bonds that provide you with interest rates equal to rate of
inflation plus 3.46%.
- Check website
http://www.IBCdata.com for more ideas about where to park your
money.
Asset
Allocation
Astute investors never put all their funds in one stock, or even in
one mutual fund. It is important that the various mutual funds in a
portfolio are of different asset classes and all have different
investment objectives. Thus, varying economic cycles, the losses
suffered by those assets declining in value are offset by gains in
those assets increasing in value. Furthermore, since investment
returns from varying classes of assets tend to move in opposite
directions at times, individuals who invest "across the board" obtain
additional risk reduction due to the low correlation of investment
returns among the classes of assets.
The biggest investment decision made by an investor is not which
stock or bond to own, but the proportion of stocks, bonds, cash and
tangibles (gold, real estate, etc.) to won at any time.
Gold, precious metals and real estate perform best in an
inflationary environment, while bonds perform poorly. During periods
of deflation, gold and real estate investors suffer while bondholders
reap abnormally high real returns. Falling higher stock prices. A
falling dollar coupled with a large trade deficit, favors
international investments over domestic investments. While investors
should position their overall portfolios to take advantage of the best
performing assets, optimal asset allocation requires that investors
anticipate changes in economic trends and take appropriate action
before such trends are well underway. This type of asset allocation
requires constant changes in the distribution of assets in a
portfolio. Although fixed asset allocation will also achieve a similar
goal of diversification for the long-term investor, it will not earn
the high returns of active asset allocation. However, fixed asset
allocation carries less risk than active asset allocation.
Once an investor establishes a portfolio, he then needs only to
monitor the funds in each asset class and select those, which promise
the best future investment return regardless of economic scenario.
Dollar Cost
Averaging
Dollar cost averaging is the purchase of equal
dollar amounts of an investment at regular time intervals. Following
this strategy, a fixed dollar amount is invested in a security in each
period. The investor must make a commitment to invest on a regular
basis in order to make the plan work. The desired outcome of a dollar
cost averaging program is growth in the value of the security to which
the funds are allocated. The price of the investment security to which
the funds are allocated. The price of the investment security will
probably fluctuate over time. If the price declines, more shares are
purchased per investment period. Conversely, if the price rises, fewer
shares are purchased per period.
For example, suppose an investor decided to invest
$1,000 in a mutual fund each month. The first month, a share of this
mutual fund is $20, so $1,000 purchases 50 shares. The next month, the
price of a share of this fund has doubled to $40, so the same $1,000
purchases only 25 shares. The third month, the share price plunges to
$10, allowing the purchase of 100 shares. The fourth month, the price
recovers again to $20 and additional 50 shares are purchased for
$1,000.
Over this four-month period, the investor purchased
225 shares for $4,000. However, the price at the end of four months is
$20 per share, so the 225 shares are worth $4,500. Thus, a gain of
$500 was made on a $4,000 investment; this is a return of 12.5%. Of
real significance, though, is that \this was accomplished even though
$3,000 was invested when the price of the shares was at or above $20,
the current price.
Over the long term, dollar cost averaging almost
always achieves this remarkable result. The average cost of mutual
fund shares purchased this way w3ill always be less than their average
value. The reason that dollar cost averaging works is because
investors who are disciplined enough to follow this plan are forced to
invest funds even when the market drops. Investors who follow their
emotions would probably stay out of the market when it was down, and
thereby would fail to make a profit. With dollar cost averaging, the
average cost per share is lower when the investor buys at market
bottoms as well as at market tops, instead of trying to guess where
the market is going next. And the more frequently a fixed amount of
funds is invested under a dollar cost averaging plan, the better the
plan will work. A weekly or monthly investment is best.
To show just how reliable dollar cost averaging is,
Dr. Rober H. Persons, author of The Handbook of Formula Plans in
the Stock Market, evaluated a dollar cost averaging program that
started right at the top of the stock market in 1929 and rode out the
whole Depression. He made a hypothetical investment every year in the
30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Persons also
loaded the dice against dollar cost averaging y putting in his fixed
investment at the market top for each year.
Naturally, the portfolio lost money in the crash of
1929, but by 1935 the portfolio was already in the black (see Table
1). The reason is that the discipline of dollar cost averaging forced
him to buy large numbers of shares in 1933 in the depths of the
Depression.
Table 1
Dollar Cost Averaging: 1929 - 1932
|
Amount
Invested |
Year |
Annual Return |
Total Losses |
Year end Portfolio Value |
|
$10,000 |
1929 |
+8.4% |
-$840 |
$9,160 |
|
$10,000 |
1930 |
-24.9% |
-$5,611 |
$14,389 |
|
$10,000 |
1931 |
-43.3% |
-$16,273 |
$13,728 |
|
$10,000 |
1932 |
-8.2% |
-$18,228 |
$21,772 |
|
0 |
1933 |
+54% |
-$6,471 |
$33,529 |
|
0 |
1934 |
-1.4% |
-$6,940 |
$33,060 |
|
0 |
1935 |
+47.7% |
gain |
$48,830 |
It took the Dow Jones Industrial Average until 1954
to recover its peak of 1929, but by that time the hypothetical dollar
cost averaging portfolio had doubled the investor's money. And by
1966, when Persons ended his study, the Dow was up 161% over its 1929
high, but the dollar costs averaging portfolio had appreciated 336%
over cost.
|